100 replicas

I have a thought experiment I do when I’m uncertain about a life decision: I imagine I have 100 replicas of myself that I could send off into the world to explore the branching life paths I could take. Where would these 100 replicas live? What vocations or lifestyles would they pursue?

For instance, I recently accepted an offer for a team at Anthropic that is distributed across San Francisco, New York, and Seattle, and I have the flexibility to live and work in any of those cities. Where should I choose to live? San Francisco is the center of mass of Anthropic and has great nature and weather, New York is where I and most of my friends currently are, and Seattle also has great nature and is lower-tax/lower-cost-of-living.

If I had a “portfolio” of 100 of me and I could allocate them to these different strategies, I’d probably have 45 move to the San Francisco, 35 move to Seattle, 15 stay in New York, and 5 would renege the Anthropic offer and start a startup or pursue a PhD or travel the world or make art. These numbers are from my gut, but what I’m trying to maximize is the “return” in the sense of expected happiness for the whole portfolio.¹

I only have one of me, so it makes most sense to do the modal thing, and I’m in fact planning to move to San Francisco in a few months. (The 45 replicas in San Francisco would in turn make different sub-decisions about which neighborhood to live in, whom to live with, etc.)

This exercise helps you think through decisions, and moreover acknowledges the paths you didn’t take which helps with FOMO (at least for me). Yes, one of the hundred would move abroad and pursue a singing career, but you can take only one route, and generally the mode is the best.